Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 07 Dec 2006 06:00 to Fri 08 Dec 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 06 Dec 2006 20:43
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Zonal south-westerly flow affects most of Europe. An intense long-wave trough is centered over British Isles, and low geopotential is also present over Scandinavia. High geopotential is present over eastern Europe. Over Mediterranean, two cut-off lows are located over northern Tunisia and eastern Mediterranean. At lower levels, relatively warm and well-mixed maritime air mass is present in the range of low geopotential over north-western Europe. In the range of several vort-maxima, showers and thunderstorms are forecast as CIN will be weak and some CAPE is likely. Given unfavorable vertical wind shear over most places, chance for organized convection seems to be weak. However, it is not ruled out that local SRH values may be rather high due to strong winds, and a low tornado threat is not ruled out if a mesocyclone forms. Chance seems to be too low for a level 1. Best potential for thunderstorms is forecast along the Norwegian coast, where upslope flow/strong orographic lift will likely support convection.

Over western Mediterranean, cut off low and associated surface cyclone are forecast to weaken rapidely. Convection east of the low is expected to be unorganized as vertical wind shear and forcing will be unfavorable. Underneath the trough center, a weak chance for waterspouts is not ruled out.