Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 04 Dec 2006 06:00 to Tue 05 Dec 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 03 Dec 2006 23:02
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Intense 180kt jet over E-Canada continues to develop SE-ward, crossing the northern Atlantic and supporting a new and pretty strong surface low to develop just west of Ireland.
Rising geopotential heights and warming at mid and upper-levels will suppress convective activity over the United Kingdom .
This configuration will be fine for an extensive area to experience locally conditions, which could be favorable for isolated thunderstorm development. Will only highlight areas, where highest storm coverage can be expected.
Another trough over the eastern Mediterranean will continue to shift slowly towards the east, while pretty warm temperatures and stable conditions affect the western Mediterranean area.

DISCUSSION

...S-Sweden, parts of the Gulf of Bothnia...

Pool of cold mid-level air ( <-30°C at 500 hPa ) will cross the area of interest from the SW . SSTs of the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia will be between 5 and 8 °C and some instability could be released. Highlighted areas indicate the track of the coldest mid-level air, where forcing and some marginal instability should be enough for an isolated thunderstorm threat.
Shear will be weak so don't expect any significant storm organisation. Waterspout development will also be suppressed due to pretty weak LL lapse rates.

...N-Ireland and Scotland...

An upper-level trough will cross Ireland and Scotland during the 00-06Z time frame and an isolated TSTM threat can't be excluded due to slightly negative LI values. Shear would be enough for severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat, but storm coverage will be too low for issuing any higher probabilities.