Forecast Update
Valid: Sun 03 Dec 2006 01:00 to Sun 03 Dec 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 03 Dec 2006 01:09
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the outlook issued at Fri 01 Dec 2006 21:29 !

DISCUSSION

Latest IR / WV images (00Z ) indicate an area of enhanced convection under a rapidly NE-ward pushing dry slot west and north of Ireland.
There are also indications that this dry slot is a little bit displaced towards the east compared to the model expectances, already affecting parts of Ireland.
At about 23Z a small line developed just SW of Ireland, but showed no signs of any additional development.
00Z sounding of Valentia Observatory indicates steep LL lapse rates spreading eastward over Ireland with attendend low level instability.
Latest GFS model run continues to indicate a strong dry slot pointing straight towards the north just behind the eastward moving frontal system.
Moisture advection charts indicate a N-S elongated band of enhanced moisture advection just under the dry slot, when leaving Ireland although models show a weakening trend.
This convergence zone will be accompanied by strong PVA and a compact UVV line, reaching the western coastal areas of UK during the 06Z time frame.
Therefore will continue to mention the possibility for a ( possible loosely ) organized line of storms to develop over Ireland, racing towards the east during the next few hours.
Main risk will be a severe - damaging wind gust threat due to extreme shear values but strong low-level shear will also enhance the tornado potential.

Will not issue higher probabilities due to indicated weakening trend by this convergence line during its eastward progression.