Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 01 Dec 2006 14:00 to Sat 02 Dec 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 01 Dec 2006 14:24
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the outlook from 30 November.

DISCUSSION

Ireland ... Scotland

Back-bent occlusion of weakly defined frontal system currently crossing the W British Isles is associated with scattered TSTMS. Deep shear of 35 m/s and low-level shear of 15 m/s should maintain a threat for severe-wind gusts as well as for a few tornadoes over Ireland and Schotland. Behavior of the convection as it moves farther inland is somewhat uncertain, but strong deep-layer lift should remain in place and may aid in sustaining the convection and the associated severe weather threat.

Ireland

Next field of enhanced convection currently over the Atlantic may also morph into a comma cloud, though probably not as well defined given weaker shear and weaker upward forcing. This activity may reach W Ireland late in the period. As strong (12 m/s) 0-1 km shear remains in place, some severe wind and tornado threat seems to exist also with this activity, especilly near the coast.