Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 29 Nov 2006 06:00 to Thu 30 Nov 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 28 Nov 2006 19:51
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

High pressure dominates most of Europe, and warm air mass advects north-westward at the northern flank of the high. Embedded in the strong flow, a short-wave trough migrates over North Sea region on Wednesday. Although models indicate CAPE, thunderstorms seem to be not very likely in the range of the weak developed trough axis. A few showers, some of them may produce some thunder, are not ruled out. Weak vertical wind shear is expected, and chance for severe convection is forecast to be weak. Another region with convective activity will likely be western Mediterranean, where weak upper trough is present. Latest soundings indicate quite rich low-level moisture, and steep lapse rates are expected in the range of the trough axis. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast. Given weak vertical wind shear, organized convection seems to be not likely, but as low-level bouyancy is rather well-developed, a few waterspouts may form.