Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 27 Nov 2006 06:00 to Tue 28 Nov 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 27 Nov 2006 01:42
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00 UTC, a closed mid-level low is expected to be located about 600 km west of Scotland. An associated cold front is expected from eastern Britain to western France to northern Portugal and should move gradually eastward. Another low pressure system is expected north of northern Scandinavia, while high pressure dominates southeastern Europe. A retrogressive trough is expected to move from the Ionean Sea to near Tunisia.

DISCUSSION

Ireland, western and southern Britain, western Brittany

After passage of the aforementioned frontal system, a strong wind field will continue to affect much of the western and northern British Isles. Some instability is expected over western Scotland and northern parts of Ireland. Showers, locally with thunder and severe gusts will likely occur there.

A mid/upper-level trough filled with cold air on its southern flank is expected to move eastward and reach Ireland in the evening. As it approaches, the forcing for upward vertical motion and storm coverage should increase somewhat, especially over the southern British Isles. As it does, low-level shear should however diminish, so that the threat of rotating storms will remain relatively low.