Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 20 Nov 2006 06:00 to Tue 21 Nov 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 19 Nov 2006 22:03
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00 UTC... a deep mature low is expected northwest of Scotland woth it occluding frontal system extending southward over the North Sea and the English Channel. The low is expected to move slowly northeastward while the frontal system works its way into the continent. A strong cyclonically-curved mid-level flow extends over the British Isles. Over southern and eastern Europe the flow is much weaker.

DISCUSSION

British Isles, western Scandinavia, North Sea,
Benelux, NW Germany

Unstable air is present behind the frontal system, with the deepest instability in vicinity of the low and behind the cold front. In those places, showers are expected that will locally produce thunder and may well be accompanied by severe gusts in places. However, given their anticipated poorly organized nature, any severe weather produced by the falls outside the scope of Estofex's forecasts.

Central Mediterranean

A mid-level thermal trough is expected to cross the area from the northwest. In the range of this system, weak CAPE is forecast over seas and some coastal areas. Given that capping will be (almost) absent, storms should be able to form easily over the northern Adriatic and the Gulf of Genua and near Corse. The main activity should move southward in concert with the axis of greatest instability during the forecast period and affect southern parts of the indicated area.