Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 14 Nov 2006 06:00 to Wed 15 Nov 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 14 Nov 2006 03:15
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A very quiescent setup for deep convective storms over Europe. There is a low pressure area between Scotland, Iceland and Norway with frontal cloudyness north of the axis in a westward flow, with open cell type convection at its south side. Although I have drawn the thunderstorm line, based on LI < 2, expect only very sporadic electric activity with these showers because there is not much forcing and organisation expected. Also, GFS model does not give very steep near-surface lapse rates and much 0-3 km CAPE. These showers will remain in this strip for the entire period.

A retreating cold front over the eastern half of the Black Sea may produce some sporadic thunder as well, early in the period. The same coldfront could trigger some thunder east of Crete as well.
A jetstream meanders its way from the British Isles to Poland, into the Black Sea, but is not overlapping the convective areas. Shear conditions are minimal.

More significant thunderstorms are advected with a plume of higher wetbulb potential temperatures (14-16 degrees, 0-1 km average) and reach the forecast area west of Portugal at the end of the period. The shear environment remains weak to moderate (around 10 m/s DLS), but sufficient for clustering, along a zone of convergence n GFS that probably qualifies as warm front.