Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 08 Nov 2006 06:00 to Thu 09 Nov 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 07 Nov 2006 21:05
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Rather zonal westerly jet present from Atlantic to southern Scandinavia. High geopotential over most of Mediterranean ridges into British Isles during the period, while upper trough over Scandinavia amplifies into Germany/Poland. Intense low pressure systems are expected to form in the range of the propagating trough over southern Scandinavia. Over Iberian Pensinsula, a weak cut-off moves slowly SE-ward.

DISCUSSION

North Sea

Convectively mixed maritime air mass is present near the trough's center. This air mass is advected into North Sea region during the period. Well-organized convection seems to be unlikely ATTM as forcing should be quite weak and DLS will be not strong as well. Late in the period, unstable air mass is expected in the wake of strong surface low. Severe wind gusts that occur will be related to strong pressure gradient mainly.