Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 07 Nov 2006 06:00 to Wed 08 Nov 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 07 Nov 2006 04:28
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

Fairly weak flow is present over most of Europe under influence of high pressure, except over Scandinavia.

DISCUSSION

...Norway...

A low pressure system with a straight isobar pattern is forecast to advect unorganized deep convection into western-central Norway within a strong WNW flow (around to 25 m/s at 850 hPa, MM5). A level 1 is issued for the chance of severe convective gusts, though also outside convection severe gusts or gale force mean winds may also occur, being of synoptic scale nature. The maximum should occur during the hours around 00Z.

...Iberian Peninsula, Morocco...

A weak (upper) low over the Iberian Peninsula will keep instability around, but with only weak to moderate (10 m/s deep-layer) shear, highest in eastern Spain, may reach 20 m/s DLS in the morning hours going by the NMM model. However, 0-3 km SREH and LLS fields from that model do not give signals that low- and midlevel shear are significant.

Severe weather is not likely to occur, except flash flooding where storms may remain stationary for a long time in the weak flow.

A few waterspouts are not excluded: the 00Z Gibraltar sounding shows 300 J/kg CAPE in the lowest 5 km, a very moist environment with low LCL heights, only low-level wind speeds seem to be on the high side. Uncertain if a level 1 is required - there are no clues now for an organized zone of convergence in coastal areas that should trigger spouts.