Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 05 Nov 2006 06:00 to Mon 06 Nov 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 04 Nov 2006 23:11
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Large-scale upper flow pattern will remain largely unchanged ... except for a slight eastward shift of the E European upper long-wave trough ... and mid/upper ridging over WRN Europe. Intense short-wave troughs over the Norwegian Sea continue to support seasonably intense SFC cyclogenesis ... resulting in one large low-pressure complex over the N and E parts of Europe towards the end of the FCST period. High pressure will persist over central Europe as well as over the central and W Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

... Portugal ...

Thermodynamic setup should remain similar to what has been present on Saturday ... with minimal capping and very low LFC heights owing to an almost saturated boundary layer. LLS and LL thermodynmic fields should remain favorable for LL mesocyclogenesis ... which may result in a brief tornado or two. Deep shear seems to be somewhat marginal for long-lived mesocyclones ... nonetheless ... will maintain slight severe probabilities.

... central Mediterranean and the Black Sea ...

Isolated to widely scattered lightning may accompany rather high-based and shallow convection in mixed polar air mass over the Adriatic ... the Ionian ... the Aegean ... and the Black Sea. Activity should be quite sporadic however ... and mesoscale foci are not discernible ATTM ... and will thus not introduce a TSTM area.