Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 01 Nov 2006 06:00 to Thu 02 Nov 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 31 Oct 2006 20:05
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

High over eastern Atlantic ridges into Iceland area ... and first arctic air outbreak of this season goes on over central Europe during the forecast period. Well-developed cold front is forecast from northern Iberian Peninsula to northern Mediterranean Sea ... northern Italy ... to eastern Baltic States on Wednesday, 12Z. Intense CAA is expected to supress deep convection. Best chances seem to exist over the North Sea, where warm sea surface should support shallow convective cells ... but thunderstorms seem to be relatively unlikely given LI of 4 . Although strong winds will be present ... vertical wind shear is not forecast to be favorable for organized convection.

DISCUSSION

Central Mediterranean

In the wake of the Alps ... lee cyclogenesis is forecast over Italy. Southerly/easterly winds are expected over northern/central Mediterranean ahead of the cold front. Rather moist low levels and height falls in the range of approaching upper trough should lead to increasing instability ... and thunderstorms are forecast to form. As DLS should increase during the day ... thunderstorms should organize. Limiting factor should be rather weak QG forcing and stable layers above the boundary layer. However ... severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are not ruled out.