Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 30 Oct 2006 06:00 to Tue 31 Oct 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 29 Oct 2006 21:57
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00 a mid-tropospheric trough over the Balkans is amplyfying, and a separate low is expected to dut off Monday afternoon over the Aegean Sea. Development of a surface cyclone over the eastern Aegean Sea is expected. Over northwestern Europe a trough with an associated deep surface low is approaching from the Atlantic and should reach the North Sea at the end of the forecast period. West of Iberia, a W-E oriented trough filled with relatively cool mid-level air affects western Iberia and later central and northern Iberia. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across western Iberia and the northern mountains of the peninsula.

DISCUSSION

Southern Greece, southern Aegean Sea, Southwestern Turkey...

During the forecast period, a jet streak is expected to round the base of the aforementioned trough. It is expected to provide strong deep-layer shear and aid in the development of organized thunderstorms ahead of and along a cold front that moves southeastward over the level 1 area. Weak latent instability and deep-layer shear in excess of 20 m/s will likely lead to a few organized MCS's producing strong, locally severe, wind gusts, with the highest threats along the Greek Ionean coast, the Peloponnesos, Crete and later southern Turkey.

A risk of non-mesocyclonic waterspouts will exist over southern Aegean Sea, especially across southwestern Turkey where low-level shear should be weak in the vicitinity of the cyclone centre.