Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 25 Oct 2006 06:00 to Thu 26 Oct 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 25 Oct 2006 05:48
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

While rather sharp upper trough migrates over eastern Europe ... upper high builds over most of Europe. To the west ... deep southerly flow affects western Europe at the periphery of intense Atlantic trough. At lower levels ... cool air mass has spread into Central Europe and northern Mediterranean behind a cold front and should spread further south-east during the day. Over western Europe ... unseasonable warm air mass advectes into western Mediterranean, France, and western Alps. Given rather cool and dry boundary-layer, only weak instability is expected over western Mediterranean. In the range of Atlantic trough ... well-mixed maritime air mass is expected.

DISCUSSION

Western Iberian Peninsula

Convectively mixed air mass spreads into western Iberian Peninsula region today ... and convective activity is expected to go on. At the cyclonic flank of upper jet curving around the trough ... DLS will reach around 30 m/s today ... and thunderstorms that form will likely organize. Low-level helicity abound 100 J/kg is expected ... and mesocyclones are not ruled out. Rather strong LLS near the coasts as well as moist und unstable low levels should support a slight threat of tornadoes today. Further east ... chance for severe weather gradually decreases as low-level instability is expected to be weaker.