Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 09 Oct 2006 06:00 to Tue 10 Oct 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 08 Oct 2006 15:40
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00 UTC... a meandering flow is present over northern Europe, with a sharp trough extending from Finland to the Ukraine, a ridge from the Norwegian Sea over Germany to the western Mediterranean, and a trough over Ireland. Over southern Europe, a cold-core low is almost stationary over the Ionean Sea.

DISCUSSION

Wrn Europe

A plume of warm, moist and slightly unstable air extends northward from Portugal over the Bay of Biscay to southeastern England ahead of an eastward moving cold front. Some thunderstorms are expected to develop/continue within this air-mass. During the night a reintensification of the warm plume is expected of an approaching baroclinic wave. Weak to moderate wind shear and weak instability suggest the threat of severe storm will be low.

SErn Europe

In the range of the stationary low over the Ionean Sea and to its east, in a zone of slight warm air advection, the presence of moist, unstable air should create a favourable environment for thunderstorms. Especially over Ern Greece, Srn and Ern Bulgaria and NWrn Turkey, storm coverage will likely be large and deliver high amounts of precipitation locally. Moderate wind shear and weak instability suggest that the threat of other severe weather is limited.