Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 07 Oct 2006 06:00 to Sun 08 Oct 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 07 Oct 2006 06:08
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Progressive upper flow pattern in place over Europe ... with rather vigorous upper trough over the North Sea at the beginning of the forecast period ... moving into the Baltic States/E Europe by Sunday morning ... southern portions of this feature are extending into the central Mediterranean ... becoming increasingly detached from the main trough. LL baroclinic zone is extending from the N Black Sea into Greece ... curving SWWD across the Ionian Sea into Libya. Subtropical/Atlantic air mass is overspreading SW Europe and the Gulf of Biscay in advance of the next Atlantic upper trough. Mid/upper ridging/CAA in the wake of the central-European trough is progged to support rather intense anticyclogenesis over central portions of Europe ... with only weak cyclogenesis is expected over the Ionian/Aegean region as upper trough overspreads LL baroclinic zone. Rather vigorous SFC low-pressure complex persists over Scandinavia/NE Europe ... the North Sea ... the British Isles ... and the N Atlantic.

DISCUSSION

... Ionian Sea ... Greece ... N Aegean Sea ...

Latest soundings and numerical guidance indicate that lapse rates are ... and will remain ... rather weak over the Aegean region ahead of the frontal boundary. Expect MLCAPEs on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg in this air mass. Mid-levels are quite dry over portions of the pre-frontal environment ... also ... marginal DLS of about 15 m/s is expected ... which may be supportive of weak storm organization and an attendant severe wind/hail threat. It seems that deep shear will be enhanced (25 m/s) in the immediate wake of the cold front ... where CAPE is still assumed to be positive ... which may also support a few severe TSTMSas well ... though weak CAPE should limit allover severe threat somewhat. LCL heights should locally be rather low per 00Z ascents across the entire region ... and an isolated brief tornado or two may accompany the storms as well.

... N-central Europe including S Scandinavia ...

Scattered TSTMS are expected to exist primarily over S Scandinavia near the thermal-trough axis of EWD progressing central-European upper trough. DLS will be minimal ... but 15 m/s LLS is expected. This may support an isolated shallow and short/lived mesocyclone or two ... capable of severe straight-line winds and hail ... and which could also spawn a tornado ... but minimal DLS seems to preclude a significant severe threat.