Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 06 Oct 2006 9:00 to Sat 07 Oct 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 06 Oct 2006 08:59
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the outlook issued at Thu 05 Oct 2006 21:27 !


DISCUSSION

This update became necessary due to scattered TSTM development over parts of Bulgaria and Romania.
A tongue of slightly cooler mid-level air crossed the area during the past few hours and should have enhanced TSTM development due to slightly steeper lapse rates ( Thessaloniki at 00Z ).... Somewhat warmer mid-level air should support a decrease in instability, but GFS still indicates a broad area of negative LI over parts of Romania and Bulgaria during much of the day.... TSTMs, which developed during the past few hours were in a 15m/s DLS environment and this shear magnitude should be present during the next few hours, too, so an isolated severe wind gust report can't be ruled out.

No changes were made for the rest of the outlook .