Forecast Update
Valid: Tue 03 Oct 2006 13:00 to Wed 04 Oct 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 03 Oct 2006 13:27
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

DISCUSSION

12Z soundings in the former level 2 area over southeastern France, Switzerland and southwestern Germany are barely unstable. A line of storms passes through the area which has seen little chance for diurnal heating ahead of the line. Isolated severe gusts remain possible.

12Z soundings for northern Italy are actually a bit better than anticipated, with almost no capping, so this level 2 area from the last forecast remains valid. Milano shows 500 J/kg MLCAPE50, with winds veering from east-northeast to southwest, increasing to 22 m/s at 700 hPa, the promised low LCL heights are there too - very favorable for tornadic supercells. Refer to the forecast for more discussion.