Forecast update
Valid: Sat 30 Sep 2006 06:00 to Sun 01 Oct 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 30 Sep 2006 14:05
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Refer to convective forecast...

DISCUSSION

Western and central France

An area capable of scattered convective development and strong wind shear has developed over western and central France to the north and northwest of an ongoing MCS over east-central France. Low-level shear over much of the level 1 area is analyzed to be on the order of 10-15 m/s and locally, directional shear is significant with SWly winds at 850 hPa overspreading SEly winds at the surface. At the same time, slightly more moisture than was initally anticipated is being observed over central France with dew point temperatures of up to 18 C. As a result, the chance of a few rotating storms is assessed a little higher than yesterday evening and the development of one or two tornadoes is possible. Locally, marginally severe hail and strong straight-line winds are possible as well. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually become limited to the French west coast and expand to include the British south coast.