Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 27 Sep 2006 06:00 to Thu 28 Sep 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 26 Sep 2006 17:52
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Central-Mediterranean upper low is progged to continue weakening ... resulting in broad but rather weak meandering upper frontal zone over Europe by the end of the FCST period. At low levels ... Mediterranean SFC low will likewise weaken per latest model guidance ... with quiescent conditions over the rest of Europe except over the British Isles which will be affected by intense and large Atlantic low-pressure system.

DISCUSSION

Aegean regions and S-central Mediterranean Sea

It seems that a Saharan EML will advect across the SE Aegean region ... which may result in comparitively high CAPE values ... maybe on the order of 1000 to 1500 J/kg ... otherwise ... essentially neutral lapse rates limit the degree of CAPE over the Mediterranean. The Aegean region is expected to see rather strong shear profiles ... with about 20 m/s DLS and locally 10 m/s LLS. However ... it seems that spatial overlap of LLS ... DLS and CAPE will be quite small ... especially the stronger CAPE associated with the EML may not coincide with the 10 m/s LLS regions. Altogether it seems that the majority of the storms may struggle to become severe ... though it does appear that isolated mesocyclones may form ... capable of severe wind gusts and some hail. An isolated tornado or two may occur as well, especially over the E Aegean and the W/SW Turkish coasts where LLS should be maximized.

Otherwise ... organized severe TSTM threat should be quite low.