Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 19 Sep 2006 06:00 to Wed 20 Sep 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 19 Sep 2006 01:15
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

A broad old upper trough resides over southeastern Europe and is associated with large scale instability. Vorticity maxima are present around southern Italy, Greece and western Turkey. A weak moisture axis stretches northward from central Europe into the Baltic states, with large scale westerly winds and easterly winds converging into the area.

Waving midlevel flow over Scotland into southern Scandinavia sends a trough with some unstable air across the North Sea into the Kattegat in the late evening, probably enough for thunderstorms, but most instability stays outside area of deep layer and low level shear which keeps any risk (mostly gust or tornado) very marginal, below level 1 criteria.

DISCUSSION

...Sea and coasts of Italy and SW-Balkans...

Absence of strong flow and presence of a reasonably moist airmass with locally strong low-level buoyancy and steep near-surface lapse rates may give rise to a number of waterspouts where convection concentrates by low-level convergence, some of which may move ashore.