Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 11 Sep 2006 06:00 to Tue 12 Sep 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 10 Sep 2006 22:53
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 0600 UTC... a broad ridge is centered over central Europe, where a surface anticyclone is located. A plume of warm air in the lower troposphere extends northward from Spain to the North Sea. A trough over the Atlantic Ocean that slowly approaches western Europe. Ahead of the system a southerly mid/upper-jet is present associated with a weak cold front at lower levels. Subtle forcing for upward motion should overspread eastern Spain, western France and the British Isles, resulting in the formation of a couple of thunderstorms, that given weak instability and moderate shear will likely not be severe. Weak vorticity maxima over the western Alps and the Tyrrhenian Sea are other areas of focus for deep convective development.