Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 10 Sep 2006 06:00 to Mon 11 Sep 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 09 Sep 2006 18:52
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

A slight SW-NE inclined omega-like weather pattern will affect Europe during the next 24 hours.... The main synoptic change will be a strengthening trough over the extreme E-Atlantic...on its downstream side, a warm airmass will spread far towards the north.

The other upper-level trough over NE - Europe and an intense low-level high pressure area over central Europe will continue to produce an hostile environment for TSTM evolution over most parts of Europe.

DISCUSSION

...Spain, S-France, parts of Switzerland and extreme SW Germany and the CNTRL and W-Mediterranean...

Same constellation compared to yesterday over most parts of SW Europe.... The most significant change will be the build - up of an area of warmer mid-level air over parts of Portugal - United Kingdom ( weak ridging )... This should help to suppress convective activity over the Iberian Peninsula ( mainly Portugal and extreme W-Spain ).

Airmass, more conducive for convective acitivty over S-France, will continue its slow northward shift and should also affect areas over extreme SW Germany and Switzerland.

Shear is forecast to be too weak for any significant storm organisation...main concern for an isolated, pulsating TSTM, producing marginal large hail, will exist over eastern and central Spain, where steep lapse rates will support moderate instability release.

Isolated TSTM development should be limited mainly to the mountainous regions over extreme SW Germany, Switzerland and extreme W-Austria.

A few lightning strikes can also occur over NE Europe ( under the influence of the departing upper-level trough ) and over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, but coverage of those storms should be too low for highlighting broad areas.