Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 03 Sep 2006 06:00 to Mon 04 Sep 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 02 Sep 2006 16:25
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Sunday at 06:00 UTC ... a closed low embedded in a trough is located over the central Ukraine and should slowly move NEward. Upstream... an intense zonal jet moves into Europe. A surface cyclone initially near the Norwegian south coast is expected to move slowly NEwd. Numerical guidance suggests a shortwave trough will cross southern Scandinavia during the evening and affect the Baltic States overnight.

DISCUSSION

Baltic States, Nrn Poland, Kaliningrad...

Behind a cold front that crosses the Baltic States in the early afternoon, a cold and slightly unstable air-mass reaches the area. Strong 20-30 m/s deep-layer and 10-15 m/s 0-1 km bulk shear are expected over the area suggesting that convective storms will get well-organized into linear systems. Both isolated storms and linear systems may develop rotating updrafts. These may produce one or two tornadoes. Additionally, a few near-severe gusts and some small hail are possible. Convection will likely continue overnight under influence of the forecast approaching shortwave trough.