Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 01 Sep 2006 06:00 to Sat 02 Sep 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 31 Aug 2006 17:57
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Synoptic pattern over the N-Atlantic supports a surge of cool air far towards the south, interacting with a very humid and
warm airmass from the tropical regions....hence conditions for an intense baroclinic zone and attendant possible strong depression development will become favorable during the next few days, affecting parts of Europe.
This type of pattern supports the advection of very warm and dry air from Spain / Portugal further towards the NE.
The combination of strong WAA over most parts of western Europe and the influx of cool and stable air from the north over eastern Europe should suppress any significant convection over most parts of Europe.

...Denmark, parts of Norway, Sweden and Germany...

Temperature profiles will become slightly more favorable for a few storms to develop over the highlighted area...mainly offshore.
An extension far towards the south was attempted over Germany ... Modified soundings show a slight chance for convection development in front of an eastward shifting surface trough.... Shear would be sufficiently high for some storm organisation, but confidence in any significant development is too low for the moment....Only expect a few short - lived TSTMs to develop during the late afternoon / evening hours if enough insolation can be realized.

...Northeast / east of the stream Dwina...

LL shear is signficantly enhanced between 6 and ~ 12Z and is forecast to overlap with at least low-end instability... Low LCLs and SRH 0-1km of 150-200 m**2/s**2 will be conducive for severe wind gust / tornado reports.
Severe weather threat should ease after 12Z, when instability will diminish rapidly.