Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 27 Aug 2006 06:00 to Mon 28 Aug 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 26 Aug 2006 19:20
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

A broad longwave trough filled with relatively cool air remains centered over Europe. This cool air is destabilized over warm water surfaces and by diurnal heating over land.
As a result thunderstorms are forecast over a large part of Europe.

DISCUSSION

Ern Balkans, Srn Ukraine...

On the flanks of the cold air-mass covering much of Europe, a moderately strong Swly mid-level jet is located over the SErn Balkans.
Ahead of an embedded shortwave trough, scattered storms are expected to be ongoing over the central and eastern Romania on Sunday morning. Especially where convection manages to get surface-based as the boundary layer warms, about 1000 J/kg SBCAPE should be able to form. As about 15 m/s deep-layer shear and is forecast, this should be sufficient to produce well-organized storms. The storms will be capable of producing large hail and strong or marginally severe winds locally. The storm threat should shift NEwd into the Ukraine during the afternoon hours.

Srn Baltic Sea, Srn Sweden, Denmark, Nrn Germany, Nrn Poland

In the range of a surface low over southern Sweden, low-level winds are expected to be weak while the condensation level should be low. These conditions suggest that showers, primarily those forming over water surfaces, will have the potential to produce weak non-mesocyclonic tornadoes/waterspouts.