Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 25 Aug 2006 12:00 to Sat 26 Aug 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 25 Aug 2006 12:19
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the outlook, issued at Thu 24 Aug 2006 20:25 Z !

DISCUSSION

...SW France...

TSTMs failed to develop over the Bay of Biscay and only an isolated SFLOC report was recieved from the W-CNTRL coastal areas of France.
Lates VIS image indicates an area of enhanced convection over extreme SW France, moving rapidly towards the SSE-SE.
Upstream of this area, a humid but pretty stable airmass covers most parts of the former level-1 area ( given warm cloud tops ).
GFS also indicates a warming trend of the mid-levels and hence a strengthening cap during the next few hours.... Departing UVM-field, strengthening cap and IR/VIS presentation will be reason enough for downgrading the level-1 area.
11Z VIS image and datas of 2 ground stations indicate a possible development of an small-scale eddy over the extreme eastern part of the Bay of Biscay....This feature could locally enhance forcing along the coastal areas of W-France, but storm coverage and confidence in storm initiation will be too low for continuing a level-1.