Forecast Update
Valid: Mon 21 Aug 2006 12:00 to Tue 22 Aug 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 21 Aug 2006 12:49
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the outlook, issued at Sun 20 Aug 2006 21:38 !

DISCUSSION

...Level-2 area...

Expanded the level-2 area mainly over the SW-quadrant, now including also central and western Bulgaria.
00Z soundings already indicated high instability release ( up to 2000 J/kg over Romania ).... Intense diabatic heating helped to develop a pretty dry boundary layer... Mid-level flow should continue to increase during the next few hours and combined with very steep lapse rates, threat of very large hail and severe wind gusts will be enhanced.
Right now an intense and segregated TSTM complex developed over S-central Bulgaria, moving towards the ENE.... Latest synop datas indicate a significant cool down with this TSTM complex which could be a sign of a developing cold pool ( conditions look fine ) with an augmented severe-damaging wind gust potential !

Further towards the west, TSTM activity is also increasing and should reach the level-2 area during the next few hours.... Conditions look fine for a possible MCS development over parts of Bulgaria and S-Romania later-on.

No significant changes for the rest of the level areas.