Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 12 Aug 2006 12:00 to Sun 13 Aug 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 12 Aug 2006 12:28
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

+++Correction in paragraph 3+++

Strongly disturbed flow will continue over Europe with a well developed upper-level trough, placed over central Europe.
Downstream of this system, a very hot airmass will be advected far towards the north, while most parts of Spain and Portugal will see a significant cool down.


DISCUSSION

....N-Italy , the Adriatic Sea and surrounding areas....

Conditions became favorable for a well defined region with pressure fall over parts of N-Italy....Latest synop- reports indicate a possible closed circulation north of Corsica, but current thinking is that this is only a mesoscale feature in a broad low-level depression ( responsible for currently ongoing scattered convective activity )... Those storms developed in an environment with strong DLS shear and there will be a severe wind gust threat, especially if small line segments of storms can develop.
Lapse rates are still steep enough for large hail mainly with more isolated cells.

The position of an intense mid-level jet was favorable for well defined gravitiy wave development east of Corsica and those waves could support TSTM development over central Italy during the next few hours.
The shear values only get stronger ( balancing the weakening lapse rates in the mid-levels ) and there is an enhanced risk for severe wind gusts and a few severe hail events.

TSTMs also developed over the N-Adriatic Sea( still 24-25°C warm ) in an environment , which also provides an augmented severe wind gust risk.
Modified low-level wind field along the coastal areas could locally enhance LL shear and one or two tornado reports can't be ruled out.

....Switzerland,Germany,Belgium, the Netherlands ,Luxembourg,Denmark and the coastal areas of the North/Baltic Sea...

Conditions under the pool of a cold mid-level airmass will become increasingly favorable for a few waterspouts / short-lived tornadoes over any shallow,large and still warm water surface.