Forecast Update
Valid: Thu 10 Aug 2006 16:00 to Fri 11 Aug 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 10 Aug 2006 14:59
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Intense negatively tilted short-wave trough migrates northeastward across Greece during the next hours. Very strong 70 kts mid-level jet streak is directed towards western Turkey. Underneath the left exit ... strong QG forcing is present due to DCVA and some WAA. At lower levels ... WAA regime is characterized by latest Thessaloniki sounding ... showing rich low-level moisture and steep lapse rates aloft ahead of the vort-max ... yielding CAPE of 1000 J/kg. Strong vertical wind shear and veering was measured ... with high SRH and impressive hodograph. Upper vort-max and associated surface low are expected to travel northeastwards during the evening hours.
For other regions see previous outlook.

DISCUSSION

Northern Aegean

Latest satellite image shows startiform clouds in the range of a warm front over northern Aegean and Bulgaria. To the south ... latest VW image shows a dark stripe associated with upper vort-max over central Greece, where strong to severe thunderstorms have formed ... that move northeastwards. Given impressive thermodynamic environment over northern Aegean ... chance for supercells should be enhanced significantly. Latest surface observations show increasing boundary-layer moisture and temperature over northern Aegean. To the southwest ... strong to severe thunderstorms have formed underneath the vort-max of approaching short-wave trough. Convection should spread northeastward during the next hours ... and additional thunderstorms may form ahead of the MCS ... that should likely organize into supercells. Chance for tornadoes should be enhanced significantly ... and a couple of events ... including a few strong ones is expected. MCS should move northeastwards into southwestern Black Sea region ... while chance for severe storms gradually decreases due to dry low-level airmass ... but chance for widespread severe wind gusts should be enhanced. Convective activity is forecast to go on during the night hours over western Black Sea region.