Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 06 Aug 2006 11:00 to Mon 07 Aug 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 06 Aug 2006 10:53
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Not too much of a change of the upper flow pattern expected ... large/intense upper low remains in place over the central portions of Europe ... with building upper high over Scandinavia ... resulting in high-over-low flow pattern towards the end of the forecast period. Moderately unstable warm-sector air mass is present S and E of elongated SFC low now centered near the Polish/Belarussian border. This air mass is covering extreme SE Belarus ... central Ukraine and W-central Russia ... with associated cold was curving across the W Black Sea across Greece into the Ionian Sea at 09Z.

DISCUSSION

Belarus

Air mass should become moderately unstable again with diurnal heating ... with peak CAPEs expected to be in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. Models indicate that DLS will increase somewhat over the Belarus during the day ... reaching about 15 m/s in the afternoon/evening hours. LLS is expected to remain fairly weak. Expect one or more larg MCSs to develop in the afternoon/evening hours ... capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts ... and local flash flooding. Imbedded mesocyclones may also occur ... which should enhance the hail threat.

S Italy ... Ionian Sea ... S Balkans

About 500 J/kg of CAPE should be available over the central Mediterranean regions ... and it seems that S Italy and the N Ionian Sea as well as the S Balkans will be covered by band of 20 to 25 m/s mid-level winds. First storms have initiated over the Tyrrhenian Sea ahead of upper vort max ... and should spread eastwards during the day. Expect predominantly large hail and severe wind gusts with this system.

Farther downstream over the S Balkans ... residual steep low-level lapse rates are still in place ... but lack of moisture has inhibited development of appreciable CAPE thus far. However ... at least neutral profiles may develop ahead of the upper vort max ... and 20 m/s DLS as well as deep/dry CBLs may create some downburst potential in the evening hours. However ... coverage is not expected to be very large.