Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 02 Aug 2006 06:00 to Thu 03 Aug 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 01 Aug 2006 20:54
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Intense upper trough over North Sea region remains quasistationary ... and convectively mixed cool maritime airmass should affect broad area around southern Baltic and North Sea. At the periphery of this trough ... strong jet is present from British Isles to northern Mediterranean and further to eastern Poland. At lower levels ... warm and unstable airmass is present over Mediterranean ... while warm airmass over eastern Europe is rather stable due to well-mixed dry boundary-layer and quite poor lapse rates in mid levels.

DISCUSSION

Adriatic, northern Italy

South of the Alps ... frontal boundary is expected to remain during the day. In the range of this boundary ... latest ascends show that moist and unstable airmass has formed. On Wednesday ... a weak surface low pressure system is forecast by available models over central Adriatic ... yielding easterly surface winds over northern and central Adriatic. As strong upper westerly jet is present ... strong DLS is forecast to develop ... reaching more than 20 m/s. Due to QG forcing at the northern flank of approaching jet streak ... thunderstorms are expected to form that should be well-organized. Supercells and multicells ... capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts as well as a few tornadoes due to low LCL heights and enhanced LLS ... are expected to merge into one or two MCS along and north of the frontal boundary. Given quite favorable set-up for severe convection ... upgrade to level 2 may be warranted during the day.