Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 31 Jul 2006 06:00 to Tue 01 Aug 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 30 Jul 2006 21:12
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Vigorous Atlantic upper trough will continue eastward progress ... with attendant cold front FCST to curve from central Scandinavia across the Baltic Sea and central Poland into S Germany by early Tuesday morning. Associated main SFC low center is expected to shift to the N British Isles by Tuesday 06Z. Otherwise ... SFC pressure distribution across Europe is rather flat.

DISCUSSION

South Germany

It does not seem that CAPE will be particularly large ahead of the cold front on Monday ... possibly at or below 500 J/kg. Indications are that shear profiles will increase somewhat ... but likely just W of the SFC cold front. However ... it seems that residual moisture will be in place over S Germany ... where 20 m/s deep shear ... and around 10 m/s LL shear should develop in the late afternoon/evening hours. This implies that isolated mesocyclones will likely form ... the main threat being large hail and damaging winds. However ... low LCL heights ... minimal capping and increasing LLS suggest that a brief tornado or two may occur as well. Main negative appears to be possibility of extensive stratiform precip. Also ... time window for severe evolution is rather small. Nonetheless level-one criteria may be marginally fulfilled ... and a level one will be introduced.

E Belarus ... extreme W Russia

About 15 m/s deep shear should be available over the E Belarus and extreme W-central Russia. However ... CAPE should be minimal ... and severe threat does not appear to be very high. Nonetheless ... multicellular storms capable of producing hail and wind gusts near severe limits may occur.

Otherwise ... especially in the post-frontal environment over W/NW Europe and the North Sea ... numerous showers and TSTMS should form. Though an isolated wind/hail event approaching severe levels may occur ... shear should be too weak for an organized severe threat.