Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 30 Jul 2006 06:00 to Mon 31 Jul 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 29 Jul 2006 23:10
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Sunday at 06:00 UTC in the mid-troposphere a trough extends from the Baltic States to Srn Italy. Upstream, a ridge lies along an axis from Srn Scandinavia to Switzerland. A broad trough with a closed low 750 km WNW of Ireland moves eastward.

DISCUSSION

Ireland, parts of western Britain

Within a cool airmass stratified, a strongly sheared flow exists. Some CAPE is expected to form in response to solar heating over Ireland and western Britain and may be enhanced by the lifted ahead of disturbances passing during the afternoon and evening. Linearly organized and more isolated storms are expected to form in the morning and pewrswist, some of which will likely develop rotating updrafts, given the strong shear. Low LCL and LFC heights and the 10 m/s 0-1 km shear suggest one or two tornadoes are possible. Additionally strong gusts may locally exceed the 25 m/s severe limit.

Belgium, Netherlands, NWrn Germany

A shortwave trough initially over the English Channel moves eastward during the day. The air-mass ahead, is destabilised as a result of DCVA-related upward motion and insolation. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over Belgium and the Netherlands as a result. Given the forecast moderately strong low-level shear, linear organization of storms is likely, that will bring mostly subsevere (i.e. <25 m/s)gusts in many places. Shear magnitude may prove to be sufficient for some updrafts to rotate, enhancing the otherwise low threat of large hail. As LCL's are low, and 0-1 shear values may exceed 10 m/s in places, an isolated tornado or two cannot be excluded either.