Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 25 Jul 2006 06:00 to Wed 26 Jul 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 25 Jul 2006 01:54
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

An upper ridge and very hot conditions prevail over large parts of Europe. Although an unstable stratification is present in many places, only locally storms are likely to develop, mostly near orographic features.
An upper trough without very good shear within the forecast area lingers over Russia, but is capable of generating widespread convective activity, especially over Belarus and Ukraine.
At the approach of an Atlantic upper trough, lapse rates and low level moisture slowly will shape up in the area of western France to produce more and more thunderstorms towards Wednesday, as also synoptic lift and shear come together (most pronounced in GFS).


DISCUSSION

...western France...

Although not much precip forecast in the afternoon/evening (GFS, Hirlam, MM5) any convection would bear the risk of local severe downburst (microburst) winds, due to evaporational cooling through dry mid- and lower levels. Expect coverage to be very low.

...other areas...
On a very isolated scale, marginally large hail and marginally severe gusts could occur, as well as local flash flooding.