Forecast Update
Valid: Wed 19 Jul 2006 14:00 to Thu 20 Jul 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 19 Jul 2006 13:46
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Refer to convective forecast...

DISCUSSION

Spain, France, SErn England, SWrn Benelux.

Steep mid- and low-level lapse rates are present across much of western Europe. A series of shortwave troughs is expected to move northeastwards in the mid-level flow and provide focus for convective development. One such trough has lead to the development of an MCS over south-central France at 12:00. Further convective development is underway further north across parts of central, Wrn and Nrn France.

The prensence of a deep, dry boundary layer suggests a large potential for strong evaporational cooling and attendant potential for strong downdrafts is present. Wind threat is largest where storms manage to organize into linear systems despite the moderate (~10-15 m/s) deep-layer shear. Additionally, large hail will be possible.