Current ESTOFEX Convective Forecasts

Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 13 Jul 2006 06:00 to Fri 14 Jul 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 12 Jul 2006 20:24
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Warm airmass is present over most of Europe SE of a frontal boundary from Bay of Biscay to The Channel ... southern/eastern Baltic Sea ... and further to western Russia. Latest ascends indicate well mixed low levels due to diurnal heating during the last couple of days. In the boundary layer ... rich moisture is present near the frontal boundary as well as over parts of Mediterranean ... Alpine region ... and eastern Europe. During the period ... CAPE up to 1000 ... locally 2500 J/kg should be possible again. Aloft ... upper ridge axis is present from Iberian Peninsula to Alpine region and eastern Europe. Weak winds are expected in the range of the upper high ... and vertical wind shear should be weak. On Thursday ... diurnal heating is expected to lead to initiation ... especially in the range of weak cut-off troughs over Iberian Peninsula and southeastern Europe ... as well as near outflow-boundaries ... sea breeze convergences ... and upslope flow regimes. Thunderstorms that form should quickly become outflow-dominant and should be mostly single cells. Severe wind gusts due to dry low-level airmass should be the main threat especially over Iberian Peninsula. Due to interaction of outflow-boundaries ... sea breeze convergences ... and upslope flow regimes ... locally veering wind profiles may support a few mesocyclones ... capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. Thunderstorms should gradually weaken after sunset.

DISCUSSION

Northern Morocco

Well mixed airmass present over northern Africa. With easterly surface winds ... rather moist Mediterranean airmass advects into Atlas region. Diurnal heating and upslope flow should lead to initiation during the day. At the southeastern edge of Iberian trough ... DLS should reach more than 20 m/s ... and given favorable veering with height ... supercells are expected to form ... capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts.