Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 12 Jul 2006 06:00 to Thu 13 Jul 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 11 Jul 2006 19:08
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Broad upper ridge present over Europe ... with an axis from Iberian Peninsula to western Russia. To the east ... weak upper cut-off low remains over southeastern Europe and eastern Mediterranean. To the northwest ... intense northern Atlantic trough yields a strong southwesterly jet over British Isles, and Scandinavia. A strong short-wave trough/vort-max travels northeastward with the upper flow crossing Finland during the period. At lower levels ... warm airmass spreads over most of Europe southeast of a frontal boundary from Bay of Biscay to northern Germany ... southern Baltic Sea ... northwestern Russia. This airmass is characterized by well mixing in the low levels as indicated by latest soundings ... and rather moist boundary layer airmass near the frontal boundary and over central Mediterranean ... leading to moderate CAPE values. However ... vertical wind shear will be weak over most places.

DISCUSSION

Finland

Strong synoptic forcing is expected in the range of propagating short-wave trough over Finland. In the range of this trough ... maritime airmass characterized by neutral to slightly unstable lapse rates and rather rich low-level moisture is expected to spread northeastwards into Baltic Sea region. Although some stratiform rain should be likely ... at least a few embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop ... reaching Finland during the morning hours. Until early afternoon ... scattered showers and thundertorms are forecast in the range of the trough axis. Given strong vertical wind shear ... bowing lines and shallow mesocyclones/multicells are expected ... capable of producing severe wind gusts and a few ... possible strong ... tornadoes ... and isolated large hail. Thunderstorms should move northeastwards into Russia and gradually weaken.