Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 09 Jul 2006 06:00 to Mon 10 Jul 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 08 Jul 2006 23:13
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

A far northward displaced polar front - jet will continue to affect most areas of northern Europe and embedded vort maxima will cross those regions during the next 24 hours.
Downstream ridging will be marked by a broad area of weak pressure differences .... Airmass will be pretty warm, but also rather dry, so expect only a few isolated storms to develop over eastern Europe due to strong heating.
Main focus for scattered TSTM activity will be a slowly eastward propagating frontal system, which should be the borderline for TSTMs because of the postfrontal advection of a cooler and more stable airmass.
Due to a few funnel reports during the last 2 days in this environmental constellation ( next to the front ), conditions could again be fine for a few more funnels to develop, but set-up will not be favorable for issuing higher probabilities.

DISCUSSION

...parts of Finland and Kola...

A weakening, but still pretty active short-wave trough will cross N-Finland during the late morning and early afternoon hours... Initiation should occur along a slowly eastward shifting frontal boundary, although the main activity of this baroclinic zone can be found over the northern part of the level-1 area... Latest soundings indicate, that quite steep lapse rates and a humid boundary layer will be in place, so expect scattered TSTM development in a pretty uncaped prefrontal airmass.
DLS of 15-20m/s will favor a few severe wind gust and marginal hail reports.
Low level shear seems to be slightly enhanced mainly over the northern half of the level 1 area and due to the low LCLs , an isolated tornado report can't be ruled out.

....SW Norway and Sweden...

Intense upper-level jet core will cross United Kingdom during the forecast period , placing a developing depression over the North Sea in the favorable left exit region.
This system should reach the area of interest during the late afternoon hours.
Main question will be the final airmass quality... It looks like this depression only incorporates the cooler and stable airmass in the wake of the N-S-ward elongated frontal system.
Models like the GFS only indicate traces of instability and therefore I will go with a TSTM line for the moment.... Any developing storm would be in a fine kinematic environment with an attendant severe wind gust threat.
Adjustments could become necessary later on.