Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 03 Jul 2006 06:00 to Tue 04 Jul 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 02 Jul 2006 18:59
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 6:00 UTC... an omega-shaped flow pattern with the central high located over northern Germany is expect to remain more or less stationary. On its western flank relatively warm air flows Nwd over western Europe. A shortwave trough located upstream extending from the SWrn Bay of Biscay to SWrn France is moving northward. At the end of the period a second, more intense, shortwave, is expected to reach western Iberia. A vort.max. over the Adriatic moves slowly southward reaching Greece Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Scotland...

In response to solar heating the boundary layer is expected to warm sufficiently to allow for surface-based convection over western Britain in ddition to potentially ongoing elevated storms. As up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE should be able to form, rather strong updrafts may form. Especially across Scotland, where deep-layer shear is the strongest, and well-organized storms may form, large hail and gusty winds are possible. Additionally, flash flooding is posisble, as storms are likely to backbuild over the same areas.

Western and central France...

On approach of the trough from the Bay of Biscay, a small amount of upward vertical motions is expected, that should aid scattered storm development during the afternoon.
Conditions appear to be favourable for multicells, that - given expected CAPE values on the order of 1000 J/kg - pose a threat of large hail in places. The forecast deep, dry boundary layer creates some potential for strong gusts as well.