Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 09 Jun 2006 06:00 to Sat 10 Jun 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 08 Jun 2006 19:34
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Highly amplified weather pattern continues during the forecast period with an omega-like pattern over Europe... Both troughs will be the focus for scattered TSTM development over SW and SE Europe.
A strengthening ridge over western Europe should suppress any significant storm development.

DISCUSSION

....Portugal and Spain....

Conditions will become quite favorable for scattered-widespread TSTM development.

Main focus will be a slowly eastward shifting, broad upper-level trough, which should reach SW Europe during the morning hours... Strong baroclinicity on its upstream side, will help to sustain a stable upper-level speed max, which supports further amplification of this trough.... This,combined with a departing upper-level speed max (over the Bay of Biscay ), reinforces a negatively tilt of this system, which is finally a quite supportive constellation for widespread instability release over the area of interest.
The distribution of the mid-/and upper-level jet cores will be conducive for a prolonged period of lift,in a nearly uncapped environment .
DLS in the order of 15-20m/s will be fine for a few organized storms to develop... Well mixed boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates ( mainly over central and eastern Spain ) would be a favorable environment for isolated large hail / severe downburst reports.
Storm coverage should be high enough for warranting a broad level-1 area.
Inverted-V soundings over central Spain minimize possibility of storms to root into the boundary layer...unlike the coastal areas of N-Spain, where lower LCLs are forecast. Conditions will be monitored for a marginal enhanced tornado threat due to enhanced LL shear during the evening hours, but evolution of this scenario still too uncertain for getting lost in details at this time.

....SE Europe....

Flat upper-level trough will stall over SE Europe with widespread low-end to moderate instability release... Smaller-scale mid-level pools of colder airmass will be the main focus for an enhanced TSTM threat ( like eastern Poland, Hungary, eastern Austria, Slovakia and the eastern Czech Republic)... Current thinking is that those storms will mainly develop under the base of those cold-pools, where kinematic parameters will be quite unimpressive.
An exception will be western Poland, where we should see enhanced DLS and therefore an increasing severe wind gust risk if storms tend to develop that far towards the west.... but current indications are, that storm coverage will be too low for warranting higher probabilities over this region.
Weak shear will preclude an organized severe TSTM threat in the rest of the highlighted area.