Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 07 Jun 2006 07:00 to Thu 08 Jun 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 07 Jun 2006 06:30
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Broad upper long-wave trough placed over eastern ... and central Europe ... evading into Mediterranean. To the west ... high geopotential/surface high pressure builds over western/central Europe. While cool and mostly dry airmass has flooded most of Europe ... warm airmass spreads into Iberian Peninsula ahead of cut-off low over Atlantic Ocean.


DISCUSSION

Italy/Adriatic

Well-developed vort-maxima/short-wave trough axis moves across Adriatic region ... providing DCVA and cold mid-troposphere airmass. At lower levels ... cool airmass spreads into Adriatic ... and weak Bora-type situation is expected along the eastern coast. Over the rather warm sea surface as well as due to strong diurnal heating ... cold airmass will likely destabilize in the range of the upper vort-max. Latest model output indicates CAPE during the day ... and showers and thunderstorms are expected. Along the edge of the trough ... strong jet streak is forecast over Italy ... and DLS should be enhanced ... while vertical veering should be quite weak. Thunderstorms that form are expected to be singlecells or multicells ... capable of producing severe wind gusts given well-mixed boundary layer and strong winds aloft.


Greece

Second focus for severe convection will be southern Balkans/northern Greece ... where rather strong vort-max is expected to lead to QG forcing. Models show that weak surface low pressure system builds over Aegean Sea ... providing some WAA to the east. Latest soundings indicate that low-level airmass should be well-mixed as well ... and GFS shows CAPE that may build as the vort-max approaches. Given steep lapse rates ... as well as some veering and enhanced DLS ... thunderstorms that form are expected to organize into multicells/small bowing lines and/or mesocyclones ... capable of producing severe wind gusts and probably (marginally) severe hail. The chance for tornadoes seems to be rather low given dry low-level airmass and LLS. Models indicate the formation of an MCS over northern Greece later on. Given rather weak WAA and moisture ... current thinking is that this system should be not too intense. Main threat should be severe wind gusts.