Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 04 Jun 2006 06:00 to Mon 05 Jun 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 03 Jun 2006 20:31
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Main focus for potentially severe convective evolution will be strong vort max which will travel across the S Balkans into the central Ukraine along the E periphery of intense large-scale central European long-wave upper trough. This will maintain rather extensive SFC low-pressure system over E Europe ... large-scale SFC high will persist across W/NW Europe.

DISCUSSION

E Europe

Air mass across Moldova ... the Ukraine ... the Belarus and W Russia will likely become moderately unstable with MLCAPEs in excess of 2000 J/kg where convective debris mixes out and full insolation can be realized ... though it seems that rich boundary-layer moisture will not be in place throughout this air mass ... locally resulting in somewhat reduced CAPE. Deep shear should be about 10 to 15 m/s across most of this air mass ... though approaching jet streak is expected to provide DLS on the order of 20 to 25 m/s over ... Moldova and S-central Ukraine.

500 hPa Q-vector convergence will be maximized over Romania and the central Ukraine in the late afternoon/early evening hours. Weaker maxima are present across most of E Europe. Mesoscale focus should be ... partly linear ... SFC convergence regions associated with mesoscale lows over N Romania and the NE Belarus ... outflow boundaries laid out by Saturday's convection ... as well as the main frontal boundaries.

Though storms should predominantly be of multicellular nature ... supercells/bow echoes may well occur especially over Moldova and the S-central Ukraine where shear profiles should be maximized. Main threat should be large hail and severe wind gusts ... though strengthening LL shear in response to the cyclogenesis especially over the Belarus and NW Russia should enhance also the tornado threat.

Otherwise ... organized severe weather potential should be limited.