Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 03 Jun 2006 06:00 to Sun 04 Jun 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 02 Jun 2006 18:10
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Large-scale central-European upper trough ... which extends into the central Mediterranean ... will merge with digging Scandinavian upper trough ... thereby maintaining strong and deep SLY flow across the ERN portions of Europe. Relatively weak but extensive low-pressure area will persist over SE/E Europe ... promoting strong WAA across this region. Associated low-level warm-frontal boundary should make some northward progression over the Belarus and W Russia ... with the cold-frontal boundary moving across the Aegean Sea ... Turkey and the Black Sea.

DISCUSSION

... Eastern Europe ... including the level-one area ...

Thermodynamic profiles across the warm/moist air across E Europe are featuring a deep EML ... with varying moisture depth beneath it. Indications are that at least locally BL moisture will be deep enough to support CAPE in excess of 1000 to 1500 J/kg given continuous LL moisture influx from the Black Sea ... especially over Bulgaria ... Romania and the S Ukraine.

Though Shear is expected to be maximized just W of where the highest CAPE is expected ... kinematic fields should still be sufficient for organized TSTMS with 0-6 km bulk shear magnitudes of about 20 to 25 m/s and LLS of about 10 m/s.

Focus for convective development will likely be WAA regime across central Romania ... E Ukraine and central Belarus N of the SFC low. Scattered TSTMS should also develop E of the WWD-progressing warm front over E Romania ... Bulgaria and the Ukraine. Supercells and bow echoes appear to be most likely across central Romania and the W Ukraine where shear profiles should be best. Expect full spectrum of severe weather ... severe wind gusts ... large hail ... and a few tornadoes. ATTM it seems that a level-one-threat is sufficient ... but an upgrade may become necessary on Sturday.

Further ... high-based TSTMS should develop along and ahead of the cold front over Turkey ... these storms are apt to produce very gusty winds ... which may exceed the severe thresholds ... but coverage is currently expected to be too low for a categorical risk.

... Central Mediterranan ...

Scattered ... rather shallow TSTMS may develop beneath upper thermal low over the central Mediterraean ... environment should be nearly neutral and weakly sheared only ... though it seems that a few TSTMS that may form over the E Ionian Sea may profit from increasing DLS late in the period. An isolated severe TSTM event ... could occur with these storms ... but threat seems to be too low for a categorical risk.