Forecast Update
Valid: Wed 17 May 2006 15:00 to Thu 18 May 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 17 May 2006 15:20
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS
refer to the Storm Forecast...

DISCUSSION
14Z surface analysis shows a surface warm front/convergence line extending from near Rennes to near Clermont-Ferrand. Strong convective inhibition, evident on the 12Z Bordeaux sounding has inhibited any convective development until about 14Z.

Across southwestern France, no focused surface convergence is evident and chances of surfcace-based convective initiation will be marginal.

However, as dew points continue to slowly rise near the convergence line, some storms are trying to get going over Brittany.

Very strong shear profiles should help to quickly organize storms that manage to aquire a sustained updraft into supercells. 0-6 km bulk shear across the level 2 area should be on the order of 30 m/s.

As low-level shear is strong as well, the supercells may spawn a couple of possibly STRONG TORNADOES. Additionally, large or very large hail is possible.Currently, the coverage of the storms appears to be too low to warrant a level 3.

In case a large enough number of storms manages to initiate, they will likely cluster as they move eastward into northern France and Belgium late this evening, where they will primarily produce wind damage.

Additional elevated storms are expected to develop over central France around and after midnight. These will be able to produce strong to severe winds as they move northeastwards.