Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 05 May 2006 06:00 to Sat 06 May 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 04 May 2006 20:12
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Disturbed weather pattern continues for Europe and main change will be a constantly weakening trend of ridging over most parts of central Europe... Such a weather pattern favors many spots of TSTM development, induced by small-scale synoptic features and topography.
Most parts of eastern Europe will be covered by an airmass, which is characterized by low humidity values, so not much activity is expected over those areas...
A decaying upper-level trough, located over eastern Algeria/Tunisia, will continue its diminishing trend and just as well the thunderstorm activity.


DISCUSSION

....parts of eastern France, Switzerland and extreme SW/W-Germany...

Despite missing forcing, a slight cool down of mid-levels, combined with moderately steepened lapse rates and forecast slight increase in low-level humidity should be beneficial for at least isolated TSTM development... Main spots forformation will be topographical exposed areas ( like mountainous regions ).
Shear will be weak and models like GFS again develop a too humid boundary layer with unrealistic high instability values...also no significant moisture advection will be expected, so current thinking is that widespread 100-300 J/kg sounds reasonable for the highlighted area.
Any developing storm should stay sub-severe.