Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Tue 21 May 2024 10:00 to Tue 21 May 2024 13:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 21 May 2024 09:31
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This MD was issued for a few supercells with isolated large hail and a tornado risk. The MD validity does not match the expected time frame for severe.

A well structured LL convergence zone is in place along the S fringe of this MD. Prefrontal airmass destabilization is underway with forecast MUCAPE in the 400-1000 J/kg range. CI is forecast during the early afternoon hours. DLS of 15 m/s is adequate for better organized updrafts and merging thunderstorms could result in a few W-ward moving supercells mainly within the CNTRL/W part of the MD with isolated large hail and severe gusts the main hazard (LCL aoa 1km AGL).

Further E (towards CNTRL Germany) more widespread CI should limit any longer-lived discrete storm mode. Nevertheless a few temporarily rotating updrafts are well possible with strong streamwise SR inflow into low based updrafts (LCLs around 400 m). This could support a few tornado events with this activity next to hail (probably below severe threshold). Up to 200 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE should also increase LL updraft strength, which can induce a few strong but not long-lived mesocyclones.