Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 01 Jan 2026 06:00 to Fri 02 Jan 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 31 Dec 2025 10:38
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued across NW Germany and S Denmark mainly for a few severe gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A blocked pattern persists over most of Europe as anomalous high geopotential heights over Greenland face lowered ones over Scandinavia and E Europe. A brisk N to NW-erly flow regime advects a marine polar airmass far S.

Moisture remains higher over parts of E Europe with regional areas of enhanced thunderstorm probabilities.

The main/localized severe risk exists over far NW Germany and over adjacent areas as numerous sharp pressure troughs pass SE/E. An augmented wind field exists wich offers enhanced probabilities for numerous severe gusts. Same for S-Denmark.
Don't want to push it too high, but the second (nocturnal) trough event could result in a few short-lived rotating storms along the coasts of the E-Germany Bay and a short spin-up cannot be ruled out.

Elsewehere, a dry airmass keeps DMC chances low to non-existent.

The ESTOFEX team wishes all the best for 2026!