Valid: Tue 21 Dec 2021 06:00 to Wed 22 Dec 2021 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 20 Dec 2021 18:39
No threat levels have been issued.
Europe is divided by a strong ridge over western Europe and a deep trough over the eastern parts of the continent. The arctic air mass that covers eastern Europe is extremely dry and cold, but some PVA in the Black Sea may result in a dew storms close to the Turkish coasts.
Better conditions for organised convection will be found in Middle East, in the coasts of Syria, Lebanon and Israel. The overlap of shear and CAPE may result in a few local small hail events and severe wind gusts.
A cut-off low west from Iberia will provide lift to unstable air masses near the coasts of Portugal, but NWP models show that most of the storms will remain offshore. No significant overlap of shear and CAPE is found over land, and mid/low-level lapse rates are mild, thus hail should threat will be low. The storms that will reach Portugal and Morocco should remain non-severe.