Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 18 Oct 2026 09:00 to Sun 18 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 18 Oct 2026 08:56
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This Mesoscale Discussion (MD) was issued to highlight a growing tornado risk during the afternoon into the overnight hours. The MD's validity does not match the time frame of the expected severe risk.

The stalling marine front, which also serves as focus for the mentioned excessive rain risk, could also become an area for enhanced tornado probabilities during the day - mainly from the afternoon into the overnight hours.

The main uncertainty is the BL stratification along this boundary. If CAA dominant, CAPE3 could be lowered somewhat, but latest data converges to a more aggressive solution for BL destabilization along the front. Backed flow increases SRH beneath 20 m/s DLS, so rotating updrafts with a distinct tornado risk are possible - including a strong event. This is also valid for an increasing hail risk, despite meager mid-level lapse rates.

The main risk will be from the afternoon hours onwards all night long.

Otherwise the mentioned more general/spotty coastal tornado risk, highlighted in SWODY1, persists.