Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 02 Oct 2026 06:00 to Sat 03 Oct 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 01 Oct 2026 13:33
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued across E Spain mainly for excessive rain.

A level 2 was issued across Crete for excessive rain.

Level 1 areas surround both level 2s for similar hazards, including a coastal tornado risk.

A level 1 was issued across Ireland to Scotland mainly for a few severe gusts and an isolated tornado risk.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A stationary wave pattern persists over Europe with ridging in place over S-CNTRL to E Europe. In the meantime, a stationary upper trough over SE Europe brings dangerous flash flood conditions to Crete with another upper trough just W of Portgal increasing the rain risk along E Spain.

Crete will see persistent onshore flow from the N with this multi-day and dangerous rain event. Embedded convective elements /thunderstorms increase the rainfall rate and serious flash flooding with numerous life-threatening events mainly in the mountains will become a concern. This risk lasts also into the following day.

Lowering pressure/thickness W of the Iberian Peninsula assists in an onshore flow pattern along E Spain. A very moist and unstable airmass advects ashore and any more peristent convergence zone could spark training/stationary convection (already ongoing from the previous night). Expect local amounts in excess of 200 mm within a few hours with flash flooding possible. We expanded the level 1 more inland to account for spotty but slow moving convection with heavy rain.

For both events, there will be an isolated coastal tornado risk.

Over NW Europe, a progressive / sharp trough passage is forecast during the day. Dry slotted split flow passage of the cold front assists in enhanced convection along the front's backside. 3km shear vectors feature a small angle to the front with forecast hodographs indicating CAA impact (e.g. lowered SRH). Strong background flow is able to mix down strong to isolated severe gusts with stronger updrafts. Right now, MUCAPE build-up seems a bit displaced from intense LL directional shear, but cells need to be monitored for temporal rotation /an isolated tornado risk.